2050 Global Temperature Anomaly X Wheat Price

Basic

Ṁ130

2051

25%

1.5<GTE<2, wheat > $7/bushel

19%

1.5<GTE<2, wheat < $7/bushel

GTE<1.5, wheat > $7/bushel

GTE<1.5, wheat < $7/bushel

20%

GTE>2, wheat > $7/bushel

20%

GTE>2, wheat < $7/bushel

Some climate doomers think it will cause mass starvation. Consider this market a tax on that bullshit.

Resolution prices will come from the last trading day of 2050. Wheat price is adjusted for inflation.

Data source for wheat (quoted in US cents per bushel)
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ZWW00:CBOT?sa=X&window=MAX
Data source for GTA (1951-1980 baseline) (called GTE in the options because of a typo) we'll use a 3-year rolling average of NASA data to make it less noisy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_record
Data source for inflation adjustment:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL
Wheat price in 2050 is multiplied by CPI_2023/CPI_2050 to convert to 2023 dollars.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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Why use GTE relative to 1960-1990, rather than relative to preindustrial? I'm not particularly familiar with literature conventions, but it seems that the typical "1.5 C" and "2 C" goals/thresholds people discuss are relative to pre-industrial levels.

@ArunJohnson oops! I'm glad you caught that before anybody but me bet on this market, so I'll change it.

@JonathanRay I'm referring to the wiki article which is using 1951-1980 as the baseline. I've decided to go with that. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_record

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