Will this market resolve to 50%?
@JonathanRay, this can resolve to YES
@JonathanRay please resolve this to YES
Assuming the main market will not resolve NO, then this should be at 2*(100-x)% where x is the main market probability, or 76% currently.
But these markets currently estimate NO at 7%, so the main market probability is still properly arbed.
Please arbitrage so I don't have to do math.
@jskf My quick mental math says they’re more or less arbed