Will the US have a revolution before 2100?
Basic
22
Ṁ2.0k2100
1D
1W
1M
ALL
12%
Communist/Socialist revolution
13%
Fascist/Nationalist revolution
20%
Other revolution
55%
No revolution
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Sort by:
@Stralor The regime has to actually change by overthrowing the old regime. If the resulting government crashes and burns after a short time, that still counts.
Does AI wiping out humanity count as a revolution? https://manifold.markets/JamesDillard/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th
@MatthewLichti This was my thinking as well for "Other Revolution", although AGI world government coexisting with humans is also a possibility.
@ImperishableNeet We just have to hope the AI lets us keep our mana after the revolution instead of paperclipping us.
Related questions
Will there be a violent revolution or Civil war in America by 2100?
62% chance
Will the United States experience a constitutional crisis before 2030?
35% chance
Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before 2026?
34% chance
Will the United States exist as a stable, independent democracy by 2100?
65% chance
Will there be a civil war in the United States before 2030?
11% chance
Will the United States become a dictatorship by 2100?
19% chance
Will There be a Civil War, Violent Revolution, or Insurgency in USA by 2030?
16% chance
Will there be a US Constitutional Convention before 2100?
38% chance
[Metaculus] Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in America before 2031?
53% chance
Will the US be a democracy in 2050?
81% chance