Will the US see a violent insurgency before 2030?
➕
Plus
16
Ṁ1045
2030
71%
No
4%
Yes, by left-wing extremists
37%
Yes, by right-wing extremists
3%
Yes, other

Insurgency:

organized use of subversion and violence to seize, nullify, or challenge political control of a region.

Not to be confused with insurrection:

a violent uprising by a group or movement acting for the specific purpose of overthrowing the constituted government and seizing its powers.

Resolution criteria:

  • At least 3 separate violent incidents within a 12-month period by the same faction

  • Carried out by one or more organized domestic groups with a consistent political ideology or goal

  • Target US government institutions, officials, critical infrastructure, or civilians

  • at least $500 million OR power seized

  • Fatalities: at least 50 not belonging to the insurgency

The following historical events would classify:

  • 1898 Wilmington Insurgency

The following historical events would not classify:

  • January 6th Capitol attack - didn't reach required fatalities

  • LA 1992 riots - not organized enough, no political goal

  • Maidan Revolution (if it were in the US) - didn't reach required fatalities

Background material:

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Would the CHAZ event in Seattle fit your criteria?

Thanks for asking! I looked into it and:

  • Doesn't meet 50 fatalities

  • Although the Seattle Capitol was seized, there was no administrative power seized nor does it seem like there was >$500mln. damages

Ah. OK. Thank you for clarifying.

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