Will any of the following Western countries have a civil war by 2030?
➕
Plus
30
Ṁ4728
2030
19%
chance

WEIRD = Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, Developed.

List of WEIRD countries for the purposes of this market:

  1. Australia

  2. Austria

  3. Belgium

  4. Canada

  5. Czech Republic

  6. Denmark

  7. Estonia

  8. France

  9. Greece

  10. Germany

  11. Iceland

  12. Italy

  13. Latvia

  14. Luxembourg

  15. Netherlands

  16. New Zealand

  17. Norway

  18. Spain

  19. Sweden

  20. Switzerland

  21. United Kingdom

  22. United States

#WEIRD Doomsday
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Can you define civil war? Does this count? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corsican_conflict

Related:

https://manifold.markets/FranklinBaldo/which-country-will-have-the-next-co

https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/conditional-on-a-democrat-winning-i

https://manifold.markets/wasabipesto/conditional-on-a-democrat-winning-i-5047057f4ade

https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-there-be-an-attempted-autogolp

https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-there-be-a-civil-war-in-the-un

https://manifold.markets/DeanValentine/will-any-weird-country-experience-a

https://manifold.markets/MathieuPutz/will-30000-people-die-in-a-us-civil

https://manifold.markets/MP/will-a-vice-president-with-the-cabi

https://manifold.markets/DeanValentine/will-any-of-the-following-weird-cou-b07b8b698192

https://manifold.markets/dreev/trump-coup-2025-conditional-on-a-de

https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-there-be-a-coup-attempt-that-k

(No way to copy-paste a market grid, so I'm just providing links.)

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