Who will be TIME's 2025 Person of the Year?
136
1.5kṀ20k
Dec 11
39%
Other
15%
[Whoever is elected Pope after Francis]
12%
[Any variation of Artificial Intelligence]
8%
Elon Musk
8%
Sam Altman
7%
Donald Trump and/or JD Vance
5%
Xi Jinping
4%
[Any variation of "The Courts"]
1%
AOC

This question resolves to the TIME 2025 Person of The Year. It uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers.

If you would like to add a new candidate or consolidated answer to the market, submit them in a comment below. If a comment gets enough support, I'll open the market to submissions so that you can add it and you'll get the unique trader bonuses.

Note that all consolidated answers must be mutually exclusive, so no more specific or general versions of existing options. The goal is to cleanly divide the probabilistic landscape into non-overlapping categories.

If multiple options do end up being true, then those options will resolve to an even split of 100%.

These rules should be considered to be in draft form upon market creation, and I am willing to update them if anyone has suggestions for improvements within the spirit of the market.

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bought Ṁ3 YES

Does "The courts" include all specific judges?

Can you add Nayib Bukele?

He’s had a profile in Time before so he’s on their radar. Naming him would be a way of drawing attention to the deportations by the Trump administration, while staying within the format of naming an individual.

@OP i would go into so much debt to buy every single cent of NO for that lol

Can you add Kilmar Abrego Garcia?

bought Ṁ9 YES

@JoshuaWilkes I propose a consolidated "The Migrant" or "People who have been deported"

@Marnix ya I think the odds of Garcia being TIME POTY are vanishingly small, but perhaps a broader category like that might be reasonable

@bens @Joshua maybe something like [Any variation of Immigrants / Migrants / Deportees]?

@bens I'm in favor of it being this broad. If they went this direction I feel like it'd make sense for them to focus both on people who have been deported AND people who are still in the United States.

bought Ṁ5 YES

Hey @Joshua could we add AOC perhaps, and the Pope after he's elected?

bought Ṁ150 NO

@bens added

bought Ṁ250 YES

I'm feeling extremely confident it'll be whoever is named the new pope. I've made a market for it:

@Marnix Why so confident? Are new popes historically named POTY often?

@ThomasPoltoranos Historically it's been a mixed bag. My vibe right now is this:

  • It's not going to be Trump / Vance, because they're not awarding it to the same guy two years in a row no matter what, but

  • I think it's likely that whatever Time goes for will be a response towards the Trump admin's policies. They did this in 2017 in picking "journalists under attack."

  • It was Francis when he was chosen as pope because of the implications of a less conservative pope for the Catholic Church and Christianity as a whole - implications which have led to the church experiencing growth.

  • Either we see a pope to Francis's right (which sets up an angle of "Is The Catholic Church Bowing Towards Trump?"), or we see one around his same area or to his left (which sets up an angle of "The Catholic Church Is Not Bowing Towards Trump"), both of which have Implications.

  • Just a general vibe. It's decayed a bit, and i'd put it at about 30-40% now, if I'm being honest. I think I'm leaning more towards a "consolidated people being targeted by the Trump administration" type pick atp, but if they decide they DON'T want to go down that route this would be the most natural second choice.

bought Ṁ10 NO

@Marnix have we actually seen enough from the new pope to write an article about him, though?

@OP It's only April, so they'll have months of prep time

Kendrick Lamar. Like c'mon, he won at the Grammys and then played the Super Bowl in the same week. That's gotta count for something.

bought Ṁ50 YES

Elon Musk and Gavin Newsom seem like plausible adds here, imo

Snoop dogg

Can we have "the president-elect (with or without vp-elect)" as a consolidated option, so that this market doesn't just become another "who will win" market?

@MattLashofSullivan That's a great suggestion! Add it!

@Joshua shoot i misread the question and thought we were talking about 2024 :(

@MattLashofSullivan No it's still a good answer! The newly elected president is sometimes the POTY the year after they are elected. Oh, I'll edit it to "the person elected president in 2024" to b clear to others though.

I'd like to nominate strikers/unions as a group

I'd like to nominate Jerome Powell

I'd like to nominate Pope Francis (or a new pope if one exists)

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