New poll has him up by 12

https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2024/03/20/senate-poll-hogan-trone-alsobrooks/

Hogan is probably the only R that could win that seat

@VerySeriousPoster

@VerySeriousPoster Jesus Christ himself could not win this seat running as a Republican

@SemioticRivalry I for one would definitely be hesitant to vote for Jesus unless he clarified his controversial statements on fig trees. I'm a one-issue voter on this.

Jokes aside, I'd definitely peg Hogan's chances at much less than 50%. Governors seem to be able to escape blind partisanship, but for the senate less so. In a state that Biden carried by 30 points it would take political wizardry to win as an R. Still though, we do have the semi-recent examples of Manchin and whatshisface from Alabama (although that was a weird one). I think that's worth a 10-20% chance.

@VerySeriousPoster Me: I think this market is fairly valued

The market: immediately halves

Oof, lord knows without trader bonuses on questions my ass would still be in platinum