Universal Death Market - Which public figures will die before 2025? [Unlinked Free Response]
Basic
269
122k
2025
75%
Jimmy Carter (99)
73%
Maria Branyas (117)
61%
David Attenborough (97)
55%
Noam Chomsky (95)
49%
Ramzan Kadyrov (47)
34%
Sonny Rollins
32%
Dick Van Dyke (98)
30%
Michael Caine
29%
James Earl Jones (93)
29%
Jean-Marie Le Pen
28%
Mel Brooks (97)
27%
Eva Marie Saint
26%
Buzz Aldrin
26%
Clint Eastwood
25%
Ismail Haniyeh
25%
Chuck Grassley
24%
Rupert Murdoch
22%
Christopher Lloyd
21%
Mohammed Deif (Israeli military's 'most wanted' man)
21%
TSwift's cat (Benjamin Button) (from the 2023 POTY cover)

Feel free to submit the names of any living public figures you think people would be interested in knowing the odds of survival for. Any duplicates or non-public-figures will be N/A-ed. If someone on this list has died, I will resolve their name to YES. At the end of 2024, all remaining names will resolve to NO.

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Oh wow first time I've seen Wikipedia jump the gun on a "was"

😐🔫

sold Ṁ59 Noam Chomsky (95) NO

We've been Noam-ed

bought Ṁ500 Jimmy Carter (99) YES

I mean honestly, he's 95 and had a massive stroke. It's not looking good for making it through 2024.

Noam Chomsky (95)
bought Ṁ2,881 Noam Chomsky (95) YES

Misresolve? Seems to have been changed back

Ugh

An article said he died and then changed its title and removed mentions of his death

I literally waited for the Wikipedia update because other sources are full of shit lol rip2me

Jimmy Carter is a tank wrapped in a decent man's clothes. He just reached 99 and 2/3 yrs old! 17 days away from his 100 day countdown to 100.

Please consider adding Willie Nelson after the next cull. He has even self-memed about it “The Internet said I had passed away”

https://youtu.be/J34esa_aJxc?feature=shared

I'm not sure why some of these entries were N/A-ed - Steven Spielberg, for example.

@ZaneMiller Manifold changed the rules about how many options could be in a market and people had added a bunch of options taking up space that I thought made the market worse

bought Ṁ1,000 Answer #3786947a2f3f YES

to the moon buddy 🫡

@Joshua ☝️

@Joshua she was 126! time to head off to that big blockchain in the sky 🚀

bought Ṁ10 Answer #3bf7203e3853 YES

RIP :'(

why'd it n/a? and rip

@jacksonpolack I had to save room after the answer cap changed, so I N/Aed a bunch but said I'd re-resolve. Have now done so.

rip that's sad

@NicoDelon scratch that - spoke too soon. you were the newsbreak (wikipedia just updated this moment 🙃 )