What will the Democratic Nominee's exact vote share be in the 2024 Presidential Election nationwide?
Basic
19
Ṁ8330
Jan 17
1.1%
0.0 - 39.9%
0.1%
40.0 - 44.9%
0.1%
45.0 - 45.9%
0.2%
46.0 - 46.9%
0.3%
47.0 - 47.9%
96%
48.0 - 48.9%
0.4%
49.0 - 49.9%
0.6%
50.0 - 50.9%
0.5%
51.0 - 51.9%
0.3%
52.0 - 52.9%
0.2%
53.0 - 53.9%
0.2%
54.0 - 54.9%
0.2%
55.0 - 59.9%
0.1%
60.0 - 100.0%

Resolves based on the finalized total popular vote count in the 2024 presidential election. In 2020 this was 51.3% for Biden, in 2016 it was 48.2% for Clinton, in 2012 it was 51.1% for Obama, in 2008 it was 52.9% for Obama.

Any Democratic party nominee will be used instead of Biden if he is not the nominee, I'm just presuming he's the nominee.

You can keep an eye on the current raw polling average here. As of market creation, it's very close.

You can find more questions like this in the 2024 Vote Share Dashboard.

#️ Politics
#🇺🇸 US Politics
#Trump
#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election
#Joe Biden
#Election margins
Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

Seems to be around 48.25%
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
Dont think bin will change from that.

@Joshua Vote counts certified and electoral college voted.
Can't see bin changing so is that enough to resolve?

bought Ṁ200 YES

“Any Democratic party nominee will be used instead of Biden if he is not the nominee”

My bad for not reading the description thoroughly, but this feels like a different question than the title asks.

easy enough fix, can probably ping @Joshua to ask him to update the title now that biden is out

Related questions

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules