Pew Research surveys validated voters after national elections and askes them about their demographics and vote. Here are the results after the 2022 midterms:

You can also see the results for the 2016 election here.

This market will resolve based on Pew's findings after the 2024 election, by comparing the change in vote % from 2022. You can submit any Race/Age/Education/Gender combination shown in the images above to this market.

The option that has the largest percentage point increase in republican vote will resolve Yes, all other options will resolve No.

In 2022 this would have been very close, with Hispanic, college grad+ winning with a 12 point swing, just ahead of overall voters ages 18-29 and the three college grad+ categories with 11 point swings and White college grad+ with a 10 point swing.

In 2020, this would have resolved to Hispanic, no college degree with a 25 point swing from +44 dem to +19 dem. Second place would have been Hispanic men with a 24 point swing, and third place would have been overall voters aged 18-29 with a 23 point swing.

I've added the favorites from previous years as starting options here, but perhaps they've shifted so much that it will be a new category that shifts most from 2022 to 2024.

In the case of an apparent tie, I will dig into the crosstabs to try to find which demographic shifted more. In unforeseen ambiguous cases, I will do my best to resolve according to the spirit of the question.