@traders There is a related market here:

😅

@Houston2025

I have a 3rd Trump Term market. 2028 is just at 2%

https://manifold.markets/ChinmayTheMathGuy/3rd-trump-term-in

Bought 5 yes on Elon at 0.3%, he's already first friend or whatever we want to call it, and it's theoretically possible that an amendment could be passed

Marco Rubio looking formidable now. He's positioned himself between the Trump wing and the old guard well.

How did these two markets get so wildly out of step?

@PlasmaBallin they're getting back in sync now

I would upgrade the liquidity of this market @creator

I don't know why "Other" was so high; the nominee is almost always someone who was a prominent figure at the time of the last election.

I think it comes from a general incredulity that you could guess who the nominee will be 5-6 years in advance. unknown unknowns and all that. I think you have a good point though

oooooops

The fact that Trump is the second-highest option here proves that we are living in a doomed timeline. Clearly something went horribly wrong and now reality is stuck repeating the same events over again like a broken record. We need to find the reset button so we can reboot it.

Arbitration opportunities:

• /DylanSlagh/who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-757313dd0344

• /Liam2024Election/who-will-win-the-2028-republican-pr

• /KnowNothing/who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-ddb137fb97ec

• /AmmonLam/will-donald-trump-be-the-republican-4f35f8beaa3e

• /AmmonLam/will-nikki-haley-be-the-republican-8f7cab59e7d2

• /PlasmaBallin/will-ron-desantis-be-the-republican-ebd10723ea5a

How do you imagine Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee for president in 2028? If he doesn't get the nomination in 2024, then how likely is he to get the nomination in 2028? If he gets the nomination in 2024, but loses the election, then how likely is he to get the nomination in 2028? If he wins the election in 2024, then how likely is he to get the nomination in 2028 at the end of his second term as President of the U.S.?

@LukeHanks the outcome "Trump gets nominated in 2024, loses, and gets nominated again in 2028" seems reasonable to me. Not particularly likely, but certainly reasonable.

@HankyUSA It's unlikely, but isn't it exactly what happened this year? He lost in 2020 and is coming back as the nominee for 2024. The main reason that it seems unlikely is that we'd think surely the Republican Party would learn their lesson and finally move on if he lost the general election twice in a row. That, and the fact that if he doesn't get elected this year, he'll probably have been convicted of multiple crimes come 2028.

@HankyUSA He wins the Presidency and democratic backsliding occurs similar to how Putin did it in Russia.

Russia was somewhat free around 2000, and then Putin shuffled around positions and intimidated the press so that every election after about a few years was never in doubt. Trump is masterful at intimidating the press and, like Putin, would purge the bureaucracy of Democrats on day one.

@SteveSokolowski I don't think Donald Trump is "masterful at intimidating the press". He's tried but mostly failed. If freedom of the press keeps eroding in the U.S. then perhaps he or someone else could achieve something like Putin did, but I don't think we've reached that point yet.

Using the new multi-choice format for who will run: