Resolves to 100% whoever is chosen as the nominee at the Democratic National Convention in 2028
Resolves to "None" if no one is nominated or if their is no convention. If for some reason the convention is postponed then this market resolves to whoever is nominated in the postponed convention. Unless the "postponed" convention takes place in or after 2032, in which case it resolves "None"
Remember to bet for "Other". Any shares held in "Other" give you free shares for answers subsequently added
1,000
3.00
@dittopoop lol once again Manifold is delusional in predictable ways. Did people actually watch Josh Shapiro at the DNC? Do they think he has the connections or chops to win black/minority voters in the South which is prerequisite to winning the Democratic nomination? Pete + Shapiro would win the Manifold caucus by 90% but have precisely like 1.5% odds between them
@fakebaechallenge After losing the popular vote? She's cooked. Unless a new Obama emerges in Congress we'll probably get a governor as the nominee. Either one from a blue state that successfully pushes back on Trump's agenda (if his approval tanks) or one from a red/battleground state who looks like they can peel off his coalition.
@Jonagold i think you have more faith in the DNC / the democratic party writ large than i do. if they had the genuine ability to choose their perfect preferred candidate at will harris wouldn’t have had to pick up after a sundowning old man in the first place
It's been a long time (~~over a century?~~ EDIT: 56 years, thanks @NcyRocks) since a Democratic candidate, or any major-party nominee other than Trump, has even run again after losing.
More specifically, Harris has a lot in common with Clinton in 2016, and Clinton was not renominated.
Unlike Clinton, Harris was not able to win a major party nomination through the usual primary process, she was eliminated in 2020 very early.
I would say that Biden dropped out at all is evidence in favor of the ability of the democratic party writ large to not nominate candidates they think will lose.
@BoltonBailey Apart from Trump, the most recent candidate to run again after losing was Nixon, who lost to JFK in 1960 then won in 1968. The most recent candidate to run again immediately after losing was Adlai Stevenson II, who ran against Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956.
Slimy Newsom already maneuvering towards center.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/18/elon-newsom-musk-california-spacex-00184408