It'd be really hilarious with all the fear of AI heating up that it turns out we've been in Three Body this whole time.

I've seen too many people complaining that the long resolution is the problem, so here:

https://manifold.markets/Ansel/resolves-yes-on-jan-1-2029

I do actually have an independent multi of this question which currently has 2029 at 9%:

@Ansel Your market as a measure of the risk-free rate only works if you have market participants who buy very large amounts of NO shares

Market-maker acts as counterparty using the subsidy

Nope. Nobody is going to buy it back to 90% now

It would work if the subsidy was 100x bigger

just keeps dropping

People are increasingly realizing the opportunity cost of investing in any long-term markets…

Even if this market was like… 60%, I’d hesitate to lock up mana in it.

Exactly. If I think I can achieve 1%/month returns on Manifold, this isn't remotely worth betting on. I'm leaving my Yes position as is out of pride (and because I have an old loan on it). But I'm not betting Yes even though my true odds are much closer to Eliezer's 150:1 than they are to the market's 86%.

If I had a way to bet at 86% odds without interest rate concerns or default / devaluation risk from Manifold, I'd take it.

yeah, the only way i'd bet on this is if other people would bet it higher after me, so I could exit earlier

I think this is >99% likely, so I'm basically treating this as a bond.

1 / (1 + 4.4% US 5y treasury rate) ^ 4.5y to resolution * (1 - 30% probability of Manifold paying interest on shares in a market) + 30% probability of Manifold paying interest on shares in a market = 88%

So, 88% should be roughly the max price that people should be willing to buy this at.

Sources:
https://www.ustreasuryyieldcurve.com/
https://manifold.markets/JonasVollmer/will-manifold-pay-interest

Given the uncertainty in various factors and the current cap of 88%, I'm cancelling my 86% limit order

@JonasVollmer I wish there was a reference curve of “resolves yes on x” markerta so we know what the risk-free rate is here. I’m not convinced it’s anywhere close to the fed rate, mainly because people are not here purely for bottom line. Is there such a thing and I’ve missed it?

@Ansel You could check the various "AI wipes out humanity" markets - there are many of those on different dates.

It's generally been possible to do much better than those, though the recent pivot will probably reduce the gap.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 I don’t think those are equivalent. One could imagine scenarios where automated resolution becomes possible eventually even when AI wipes out humanity. This means that even though you as a human wouldn’t survive to resolution, you’d see accurate prices in the meantime.

@Ansel ... would you? I guess maybe if AIs who expected to survive humanity's extinction started trading in the mean time.

@MugaSofer You don’t need them to be trading yet, you only need an expectation of accurate resolution. For the same reason that a market “resolves yes on Jan 1 2100” still has value today, even if no-one alive today expects to see that happen

@Ansel They don't have to be trading yet, they just have to start trading prior to the extinction of humanity. (Otherwise there'd be no-one expecting to survive for humans to sell to.)

@Ansel Like, if it was known that an asteroid was going to wipe out life on Earth in 2050, the "resolves YES in 2100" shares would be worthless, even if Manifold had Apocalypse-proofed their servers to ensure the resolution would still take place automatically.

@Ansel I think the bigger issue with @TimothyJohnson5c16's suggestion is that many people trade on extinction markets at their actual odds of extinction for non-profit-seeking reasons.

Agree on your final point. But your asteroid scenario is different from the human extinction one. If the asteriod has only a 50% chance of destroying earth in 2050, I expect that the 2100 market trades at normal-ish levels, although there may be a bigger discount due to general discount-curve-steepening by the asterioid. And I don't think you ever need to sell to an AI, because the resolution itself is indistinguishable from a final 'sale' an instant before the resolution at full price

@JonasVollmer its also… not a prize market.

Selling off some shares with a favorable limit order at 87 :) Clearly this means I think there’s a 13% chance of UFO’s being aliens

@benshindel I got you fam