Will there be a new ongoing major war (10,000+ deaths) listed by Wikipedia by the 4th of July, 2024?
Basic
33
Ṁ13kJul 4
1%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If an ongoing major war with a "start of conflict" in 2023 or 2024 is added to the Wikipedia List of Ongoing Armed Conflicts after this market is created and before market close, resolves yes. The war in Sudan is already on the list as of market creation, and so does not count for this market.
![](https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fg2X6gZeMhS.png?alt=media&token=348abf7c-4315-4077-8c5d-41673d0a896a)
Any Wikipedia vandalism will be disregarded. The new ongoing war can be one of the ongoing conflicts with <10,000 deaths as of market creation, if it is promoted to a proper war (and has a start of conflict in 2023 or 2024).
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be a new ongoing war (1000+ deaths) listed by Wikipedia by the 4th of July, 2024?
2% chance
What will be the most popular Wikipedia article in 2024?
Will a new major war break out in 2024?
15% chance
What will be the top 10 most viewed Wikipedia articles of 2024?
By 2040, will there be a Wikipedia page about a China-India war that started after 2019?
52% chance
Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?
27% chance
Will a major world war occur before the end of 2050?
42% chance
Will there be more political self-immolations in 2025 as compared to 2024 as reported by Wikipedia?
47% chance
Will we see any major wars before the end of 2024? 🤔
23% chance
In 2026, what will Wikipedia say was the result of the October 2023 Gaza−Israel conflict