By 2050, will a country have waged a war of conquest because its territory is becoming uninhabitable?
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Plus
10
Ṁ205
2049
33%
chance

Thinking of those countries in South Asia and the Middle East that will likely be getting regular lethal wet bulb temperatures, or those coastal countries that will likely lose land to sea level rises

This will resolve to some extent on consensus, but such a war would be characterized by the seizing, or failure to seize, of cooler or higher territory.

Presumably before (and after) would be characterized by wet bulb events, or coastal flooding. It seems fair to expect that there would also be a public media debate about the need for such action, at least in countries with a free press.

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Does this include a attack to destroy an upstream dam that is keeping water from the downstream country?

@CromlynGames only if the downstream country is attempting to seize and hold territory related to the dam

My priors on this are pretty low

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