Did Taiwan help Israel use pagers to attack Hezbollah? | Manifold

Did Taiwan help Israel use pagers to attack Hezbollah?

26

Ṁ3363

Dec 31

6%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

By the end of 2024, will the New York Times report that Taiwanese intelligence services or authorities knew about the attack in advance and took any action to assist that they would not have taken absent this knowledge?

I will not bet on this question.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/17/world/middleeast/israel-hezbollah-pagers-explosives.html

#🇮🇱 Israel

#🇹🇼 Taiwan

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bought Ṁ50 NO

They claim these were made by a subsidiary in Europe

bought Ṁ20 NO

My priors are that Taiwan would be unlikely to involve themselves in this fraught political situation given their other concerns.

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Will TSMC or any Taiwanese entity be accused of knowingly assisting the explosive pagers and battery attack on Lebanon?

-30% 1d14% chance

Was the Hezbollah pager attack caused by supply chain compromise OR cyber attack?

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Will Hezbollah's exploding pagers be shown to have explosive material added beyond what is in a normal battery?

+48% 1d98% chance

Related questions

Were there explosives in the Pager devices that blew up in Lebanon?

Will TSMC or any Taiwanese entity be accused of knowingly assisting the explosive pagers and battery attack on Lebanon?

Did Israel wound or kill Hassan Nasrallah with the coordinated Hezbollah pager explosion on 9/17?

Was the Hezbollah pager attack caused by supply chain compromise OR cyber attack?

Will Taiwan buy any Air Defence System from Israel before 2035?

How many Hezbollah Operatives were killed by the pager operation

How many Hezbollah Operatives were INJURED by the pager operation

Will Hezbollah's exploding pagers be shown to have explosive material added beyond what is in a normal battery?