Will China occupy the Second Thomas Shoal before 2026?
Basic
3
Ṁ422026
44%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The Second Thomas Shoal is curently occupied by the Philippines.
This question resolves YES if China permanently stations armed forces on the Second Thomas Shoal
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will China occupy the Second Thomas Shoal before 2025?
15% chance
Will China invade or blockade Taiwan by the end 2024?
2% chance
Will China occupy the Second Thomas Shoal before 2027?
47% chance
Will China occupy the Second Thomas Shoal before 2030?
55% chance
During 2024, will a US ship clash with a Chinese ship at Second Thomas Shoal?
9% chance
Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near the Second Thomas Shoal before 2025?
22% chance
Will China's Navy or Coast Guard seize or sink a Philippine boat by the end of 2024?
15% chance
Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2025?
41% chance
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030?
49% chance
During 2024, will a US ship clash with a Chinese ship at Sabina Shoal?
14% chance