Will China occupy the Second Thomas Shoal before 2030?
Basic
1
Ṁ5
2030
55%
chance

The Second Thomas Shoal is curently occupied by the Philippines.

This question resolves YES if China permanently stations armed forces on the Second Thomas Shoal

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Really interested to read up about this. Not something I knew a whole lot about to be honest! Will keep an eye out for updates.

Any good sources you look out for to keep updated?

@JulianLees No one in particular. I think lots of accounts in Twitter are doing the extra detail that's needed above mainstream reporting. A cocktail of people focused on the PLAN and the USN plus some SCS specialist would be far more than enough.

predicts YES

@JoshuaWilkes Great thanks. Will follow this with interest

@JulianLees The key point that made create all these Second Thomas Shoal markets was seeing that CCG ship had a ram, and then hearing that the Sierra Madre might really only have a year left. There's just a couple of really bad elements here that IMO move things from really unlikely to quite unlikely.

predicts YES

@JoshuaWilkes yea I read up about the ship ram. The Sierra Madre was run aground deliberately to kind of claim the shoal wasn't it? Surely there were more permanent plans to establish something a bit more robust. Fascinating and tense stuff. Boats being rammed seems beyond aggressive posturing...

@JulianLees don't know much at all about the SM . Would imagine budgets and complacency played their parts

predicts YES

@JoshuaWilkes I'm currently reading Born to Run by Christopher McDougall and serendipitously learning about the Sierra Madre mountain range system and specifically the Copper Canyon and the Tarahumara/Rarámuri people who inhabit it.

Not related directly other than through the name. Funny for someone from the other side of the world to come across two contexts of the name within 2 days when I could recall nothing about it prior...

@JulianLees I know Sierra Madre because it's in a film title referenced in Bamboozled! in friends... 😛

predicts YES

@JoshuaWilkes hahahaha that's so good!

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