Will there be a clash between Taiwanese and Chinese Coast Guard ships in the waters around Kinmen in 2024?
Basic
7
Ṁ87Dec 31
29%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Clash: physical contact or projectile weapons fired (INCLUDING WATER CANNON). Reports of sonic or laser weapons fired will also cause a YES resolution. A loud speaker is not inherently a sonic weapon.
This is a deliberately 'low-bar' market primarily testing whether China and Taiwan are prepared to escalate the brewing trouble in Kinmen.
I will not bet in this market. I am avoiding defining the "waters around Kinmen" because I fear reports will not specify, but the intention is to refer to the waters that straddle the territory of China and Taiwan.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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