A recent reputable presidential election poll of Alaska showed Donald Trump ahead of Kamala Harris by only 5 points with likely voters, garnering much online attention, including from Nate Silver.

This market resolves YES if Kamala Harris comes within 5 points or less of winning Alaska in the 2024 Presidential Election — matching or beating the results of this poll. A victory of any amount for Kamala Harris would resolve YES too. 5.50% or lower will be considered within 5 points, while 5.51% or higher will not.