Will it snow in Toronto, ON? [February 2024]
Standard
28
Ṁ42k
resolved Mar 1
Resolved
NO
February 1st
Resolved
NO
February 3rd
Resolved
NO
February 2nd
Resolved
NO
February 4th
Resolved
NO
February 5th
Resolved
NO
February 6th
Resolved
NO
February 7th
Resolved
NO
February 8th
Resolved
NO
February 9th
Resolved
NO
February 10th
Resolved
NO
February 11th
Resolved
NO
February 12th
Resolved
YES
February 13th
Resolved
YES
February 14th
Resolved
YES
February 15th
Resolved
YES
February 16th
Resolved
YES
February 17th
Resolved
YES
February 18th
Resolved
NO
February 19th
Resolved
NO
February 20th

Will it snow in February markets:
/Kable/will-it-snow-in-toronto-february-20
/Kable/will-it-snow-in-montreal-february-2
/Kable/will-it-snow-in-moncton-nb-february
/Kable/will-it-snow-in-sudbury-greater-on
/Kable/will-it-snow-in-calgary-ab-february

Resolves YES if any amount of snow above 0.0cm, including E = Estimates, and T = Trace.
Resolves NO for Total Snow 0.0cm.
Resolves N/A for M = Missing snow amount.

Resolution Criteria: Total Snow (cm) at TORONTO INTL A

https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?StationID=51459

Weather Forecast:

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/on-143_metric_e.html

Each day can be bet on independently and can be resolved the day after.

Notes:
- Until Manifold allows setting independent close dates on multiple choice markets, I will be setting the close date for these markets to every morning at 11AM UTC. The data for the previous day is usually available by then. I will resolve the previous day and reopen the market as soon as I can get around to it every day.

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thanks for running these markets @Kable ! I had fun.

Apple Weather lied to me

My weather app says there were just flurries for the past hour

Posting this in my 5 weather markets:

I am not continuing any weather markets past February, if anyone wants to take over and maybe do "Will it rain?" instead for the later months go ahead. I may do some again in the future but I'm taking a break for March at least.

Will wait until I'm resolving for Feb 2nd, if Feb 1st is still showing 'M', will resolve N/A.

@Kable Still showing M for me but you resolved as 'No'

@Athena I'm seeing the same - perhaps @Kable meant to resolve the 2nd and got mixed up

@draaglom Ah shit yeah sorry guys, that's exactly what happened @draaglom. I'm just going to resolve N/A immediately next time there's a 'M' in the data to avoid the confusion.

Edit: After checking the bets it looks like no one lost any Mana due to my error so we'll just call that a happy little accident since Manifold doesn't allow fixing the resolution of MC markets.

Edit2: Actually I now see two who lost a little Mana so I sent them a bit.

I added this to the description for all the markets

Resolves N/A for M = Missing snow amount.

Not sure if they'll be counted as snow or rain

Flurries again