Will more than 1000 people die in a conflict between Israel and Hezbollah/Lebanon during 2024?
Basic
19
Ṁ2.4kDec 31
74%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Counting all deaths caused by all fighting between the two sides during all of 2024.
Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
I found no numbers. But this hints at a reduction in threat risk:
“The U.S. and four of its European allies hope to announce in the next few weeks a series of commitments made by Israel and Hezbollah to diffuse tensions and restore calm to the Israel-Lebanon border, according to two Israeli officials and a source briefed on the issue.” Feb 6, 2024
https://www.axios.com/2024/02/06/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-biden-gaza
Related questions
Related questions
Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2024?
74% chance
Will more than 5000 people die in a conflict between Israel and Hezbollah/Lebanon during 2024?
60% chance
Will a state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?
12% chance
Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war before 2025?
74% chance
[Metaculus] Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?
69% chance
Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?
16% chance
Will the death toll in the current Israel-Palestinian conflict reach 100,000?
22% chance
Will more people die in wars in 2024 than in 2023?
59% chance
Will more than 5% of Gazans be killed during the ongoing war between IDF and Hamas by the end of 2024?
18% chance
Will more than 1000 people die in an internal conflict in Russia by 2025?
10% chance