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Escalating violence between Russian soldiers already present in Georgian, Moldovan, Armenian and Azerbaijani territory and the local population or border patrols, seems far more likely than another large scale war with another previously unaffected sovereign country like Kazakhstan or Estonia.

@JoelHancock If such an event does not bring any consequence (sending more troops for example), i won't count it as an attack.

There must be an order given. If a conflict is risen by ordinary soldiers and their recklessness, this will not count.

@JoelHancock but an airstrike is an obvious attack, it cannot be caused by "tension between soldiers and population" and would be a definitive yes case.