This will be decided on July 23, 2024, market closing slightly beforehand. Only selection matters, if the 2030 Winter Games are cancelled or delayed it will not effect the market. If multiple cities collaborate to host the games, market will resolve to each of these cities equally, no matter the scale of involvement (For example, the 2024 Paris Summer Games will hold surfing events in French Polynesia, which would count for the purposes of the question). I may bet in this market.