Will "One Day Sooner" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
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Plus
1
Ṁ25
Feb 1
16%
chance

As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2023 Review resolves in February 2025.

This market will resolve to 100% if the post One Day Sooner is one of the top fifty posts of the 2023 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.

#LessWrong Annual Review
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bought Ṁ5 YES

Most of my bets on the Annual Review are directionally my belief on whether that post will get into the top 50. This bet in particular has more than a little bit of hubris and arrogance to it.

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