Whatever Musk tweets or reposts, including reposts (the content directly visible in the repost and pictures (videos, podcasts, etc. are excluded) without opening a thread) after market creation/adding the submission, counts. Whatever is visible under "Posts" on his page, even if deleted later, also counts. Replies, etc., do not count.
I reserve the right to mark any answer as N/A for any reason, especially low value answers (i.e. "Tesla" or "United States") according to my judgement. Please ask beforehand. [payments for submissions won't be returned]
Literally submissions will only be based on what Musk directly types on X in his own posts and in the text above reposts. This does not include what other people write or what he uses in replies. Furthermore, it does not include what he says in a video or what is visible in a picture or meme, even if these contain words.
Resolution criteria
I'll be fairly relaxed, but it should be clear and obvious. I.e. if he tweets "the president does[...]," Joe Biden would resolve to yes. However, "Obamacare" won't resolve "Obama." "Transgender" isn't enough to resolve "LGBT," but "LGBTQIA+" and "transgender, [...] homosexuals and bisexuals" would resolve "LGBT." If the submission requires an international context, the submission won't resolve if Musk only mentions a single country. If you need more examples, please feel free to ask.
I'll use my own judgment and might seek input from mods in unclear cases or decide to N/A.
I won't bet in this market except to push certain answers in the ranking.
The question closes on July 4th at 0:00 PT. Any submissions without proof by July 5th at 0:00 PST will be resolved as NO.
Related questions
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@traders Please keep in mind that the deadline for posting will pass tomorrow (July 4th at 00:00 PT) and the market will close. If you have additional evidence, please comment before July 5th at 00:00 PT. Otherwise, all remaining submissions will be resolved as NO.
Thank you to everyone for trading π§‘
The next market until after the election is here:
Only original posts and reposts are considered for this question. Replies do not count.
Quick links:
well I don't think it's fair to refer to it as "animated white stripes" it's clearly modeling a firework lol
I accept that you're not counting this representation of a firework when July 4th was impending (and the chosen cars are red and blue on white sand) as it's your market and your choice of course! but there's no need to suggest it's not clearly meant to be fireworks shaped like the Tesla logo π§‘
@shankypanky I made a mistake with the official closing time for this market (AM vs. PM). I could reopen for a few minutes it if you would like to sell.
@traders Please keep in mind that the deadline for posting will pass tomorrow (July 4th at 00:00 PT) and the market will close. If you have additional evidence, please comment before July 5th at 00:00 PT. Otherwise, all remaining submissions will be resolved as NO.
Thank you to everyone for trading π§‘
The next market until after the election is here:
Is https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1796579097633763586 a
presidential debate or do multiple candidates have to debate?
@ChristopherRandles I'm pinging @shankypanky, but in my view, this suggestion is pretty obvious about the debate between Biden and Trump on CNN, not a random debate/interview with a former president and someone else.
@Lion Biden has declined a separate similar event on X but 2 candidates have agreed to separate events AIUI
I'm really confused - a town hall isn't a debate. he's hosting a guy and talking to him. presidential debate is pretty clear - he needs to post about a presidential debate lol
even if Biden agrees to a separate town hall on x it's still not a debate. it's like saying two people had a conversation with each other because they were both interviewed by NPR at separate times by the same person.
in case the term "town hall" is unclear:
Public town hall meetings
These meetings are open to everyone and are a way for people to ask questions and share their opinions about policies or problems. They can be a good way for people to let the government know about issues that matter to them. A common format for public town halls is a panel discussion with a moderator and three or four experts, followed by a question and answer session. Town halls are a way for elected officials, political candidates, and public figures to connect with their constituents.
@shankypanky I didn't bet on it as I wasn't sure so I am ok with you saying no. It might be viewed as a series of presidential candidate debates which seems more like a presidential debate series of events, but if that doesn't qualify unless more than one candidate is present then that seems fine.
okay just to be clear about what would qualify, it's either hosting an actual debate on X or directly referring to the debate between the current candidates. a single person in conversation doesn't count, even if there's a Q&A. past debate references also don't count, i.e. if he refers to Jimmy Carter's debate against Ronald Reagan in 1980, it doesn't count.
@shankypanky Thanks for the clarity.
I would have assumed if broadcast on X but Musk didn't tweet about it then it would not qualify but you seem to be saying that would qualify. Or are you saying that would qualify only if Elon was the host?
@ChristopherRandles no, I'll clarify again. the market is literally only for his tweets so he needs to tweet about hosting an actual debate...