When will "The Winds of Winter" (A song of Ice and Fire) by George R.R. Martin be published?
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Plus
53
Ṁ6258
2030
0.6%
2024
9%
2025
16%
2026
27%
2027
7%
2028
5%
2029
6%
2030
30%
Other

This question focuses specifically on "The Winds of Winter". The condition would be fulfilled if the title matches or has resemblance to "The Winds of Winter", such as "A Few Winds of Winter", "The Winds of Snow" or "The Tornados of Winter". Simply having a sixth book isn't sufficient to resolve this market yes. If a notably different title is utilized, I'd rely on George R.R. Martin's or his publisher (in case of death) statements and media reports to determine if the content planned for the sixth book aligns with or resembles what was envisioned for "The Winds of Winter". For instance, if Martin decided to write another book in between and published it as the sixth book of "A Song of Ice and Fire" series, this question would remain unresolved.

It must be published in an unlimited edition or a limited edition with at least 100 000 books.

If the book was released in multiple parts that were published in different years, the question would accordingly be resolved to more than one year due to the split.

If the book wasn't published until 2030, I'd add options and extend the question closing date. If the book wasn't published before 2035 or was published in 2023, this market would resolve as Other.

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bought Ṁ5 YES

If GRRM passes away, and the book is then completed and published by a co-author, does that count?

@JoshYou Yes, as long as Martin is mentioned as an author (since he has written parts of the book). However, a completely made-up story or pure fanfiction that doesn’t align with Martin’s vision for "The Winds of Winter" wouldn't count. It's part of this rule in the description:

If a notably different title is utilized, I'd rely on George R.R. Martin's or his publisher (in case of death) statements and media reports to determine if the content planned for the sixth book aligns with or resembles what was envisioned for "The Winds of Winter".

Other seemed undervalued given the market saying 50% he dies before publishing it.

@Multicore The book will still be published after his death, see description (at least I hope so)

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