Will an AI system write a high quality "Winds of Winter" novel before George RR Martin publishes the actual thing? | Manifold

Will an AI system write a high quality "Winds of Winter" novel before George RR Martin publishes the actual thing?

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2026

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Market resolved if someone shows me a "Winds of Winter" novel attempt, written by an AI that has cleared read or understands the other books, that I like

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bought Ṁ200 YES

he wont finish writing it anytime soon

No idea if it’s high quality or not but one guy has already used AI to write completed versions of Winds of Winter and Dream of Spring. Now taken down due to copyright infringement.

predictedYES

Conditional on us getting LLMs with arbitrarily long context windows (or some alternative memory mechanism) I think this is actually quite likely, and my bets are mostly on whether or not we'll actually get that in time. I think most of the probability mass is on this market resolving N/A though because I don't expect Martin or an AI to write Winds of Winter by 2025.

Given that Martin dying doesn't resolve YES, this seems unlikely by 2025.

predictedYES

@VivaLaPanda Martin dying resolves N/A, I'm pretty sure.

If it wasn't you specifically making the market I would bet No

I bet yes, but I think its still pretty unlikely since you actually have to like the AIs attempt

If neither Martin nor an AI actually writes it by the deadline (2025 I think) then I'll resolve as N/A, this includes if he dies but an AI version wasn't written yet

What if Martin dies before this happens? Would you resolve yea by default?

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