Will an LLM report >50% score on ARC in 2025?
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ARC is a general-purpose AI eval designed to test intelligence as opposed to memorization. https://arcprize.org/arc
This market resolves to Yes if there are public demonstrations of general-purpose base models from OpenAI, Anthropic or Deepmind that solve at least 50% of the ARC questions before 2026.
(note that this is separate from winning the arc price, which requires only using open-source models)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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