Will an LLM report >50% score on ARC in 2025? | Manifold

Will an LLM report >50% score on ARC in 2025?

19

1kṀ3984

Dec 31

85%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

ARC is a general-purpose AI eval designed to test intelligence as opposed to memorization. https://arcprize.org/arc

This market resolves to Yes if there are public demonstrations of general-purpose base models from OpenAI, Anthropic or Deepmind that solve at least 50% of the ARC questions before 2026.

(note that this is separate from winning the arc price, which requires only using open-source models)

Technical AI Timelines

Get

1,000

to start trading!

Sort by:

Current leaderboard:

I guess you're not counting reasoning models like o1 or o3? Are you also ignoring the compute limit?

bought Ṁ1,000 YES

I assume this resolves YES if it happens in 2024?

Yes!

People are also trading

ARC-AGI-2 Top Score >=50% in 2025?

-4% 1d23% chance

LLM Hallucination: Will an LLM score >90% on SimpleQA before 2026?

6 months from now will I judge that LLMs had already peaked by Nov 2024?

Will there be an LLM which scores above what a human can do in 2 hours on METR's eval suite before 2026?

Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?

Will China have the best LLM by the end of 2025?

Will an LLM be able to solve the Self-Referential Aptitude Test before 2027?

Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?

What will be true of Anthropic's best LLM by EOY 2025?

Will RL work for LLMs "spill over" to the rest of RL by 2026?

Related questions

ARC-AGI-2 Top Score >=50% in 2025?

LLM Hallucination: Will an LLM score >90% on SimpleQA before 2026?

6 months from now will I judge that LLMs had already peaked by Nov 2024?

Will there be an LLM which scores above what a human can do in 2 hours on METR's eval suite before 2026?

Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?

Will China have the best LLM by the end of 2025?

Will an LLM be able to solve the Self-Referential Aptitude Test before 2027?

Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?

What will be true of Anthropic's best LLM by EOY 2025?

Will RL work for LLMs "spill over" to the rest of RL by 2026?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules