https://tontine.cash/ is a MSCHF game. On 2021-12-27, 7141 players each paid $10 into a central pot and have been required to check in at least once a day by midnight EST/EDT or else be eliminated. The last remaining player will win the pot. As of 2023-3-25, 493 players remain.
The market resolves YES if/when the central pot is paid out. It resolves NO if/when the game is canceled for any reason, or if the central pot does not pay out by the end of 2099, which will stand in for "effectively never".
1,000
3.00https://manifold.markets/Lorxus/when-will-tontine-pay-out Made a better market for this using the new(ish) Free Response type!
Symbolic bet because this obviously won't resolve any time soon, but they will never pay out because bots are allowed. There's no way to ensure that the people checking in aren't just using a script, and even if they do add some kind of verification, I think AI will get good enough within the next 10 years that it will be able to answer any verification question.
MSCHF explicitly says “anything is allowed” in the rules, which I think means that they know that it will never pay out if bots are allowed. So they essentially made free money.
