Which bold predictions will come true during the 2024 MLB season?

Basic

Ṁ8823

Nov 9

ALL

99%

The four "Jacksons" (Holliday, Jobe, Chourio, Merrill) will produce more fWAR than the four "jacked sons" (Yandy Díaz, Tyler O'Neill, Adolis García, Michael Lorenzen)

95%

Shohei Ohtani will steal more bases than the total of the number of games he's suspended (if any) + the number of open media sessions he attends during the season

41%

At least one position player drafted in July will play in the 2024 regular season or postseason

35%

A relief pitcher (50%+ appearances in relief) will win as many games as one of the Cy Young winners

30%

The average age of MLB batters, weighted by plate appearances, will be lower than in any season since the 1970s (i.e. <27.91 yrs)

28%

Oneil Cruz will receive MVP votes, but still finish behind Elly De La Cruz

22%

There will be a viral or semi-viral moment involving a screenshot of a player's nipples, gooch and/or butthole, or the outline of their penis and/or testicles being visible through their uniform during a broadcast

10%

For the second straight season, there will be a first-time World Series winner (Rays, Rockies, Mariners, Brewers, Padres)

At least one active MLB player will issue an apology in a press release for comments made on social media about the 2024 election or issues related thereto

Sixto Sánchez will become the first player to earn Rookie of the Year votes in non-consecutive seasons

Spencer Strider will strike out at least 300 batters

There will be a combined perfect game this season

1.2%

Jackson Jobe will throw a no-hitter in the major leagues

1.1%

George Kirby will win the AL Cy Young Award

Two Texas Rangers will finish in the Top 5 in AL MVP voting

Resolved

YES

The regular-season schedule will end with the first-ever three-way tie for a playoff spot

Resolved

YES

The top pick in the 2024 amateur draft will not be Dub Gleed, Michael Massey, Ethan Petry, or Marek Houston

Resolved

YES

The Orioles will make the postseason, but will be swept out of their first postseason series

Resolved

YES

At least one of the Giants' free agent additions from the 2023–24 offseason will have a higher fWAR than Shohei Ohtani or Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Resolved

YES

The second semifinal of the Home Run Derby will go to a tiebreaker

On Episode 2143 of the Effectively Wild podcast, Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley, Ben Clemens, and Michael Baumann each made 10 "bold" predictions about baseball in 2024. Which ones will come true?

Source: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/effectively-wild-episode-2143-the-2024-preseason-predictions-game/

Most of, but not all, the predictions are about the MLB season itself. Some are about college baseball. But they will all be resolved by the end of the MLB World Series in early November.

Resolution arbitration of all 40 questions will be determined by official MLB results, the Effectively Wild prediction contest, and the Associated Press.

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The Orioles will make the postseason, but will be swept out of their first postseason series

Just as the prophecy foretold. Resolves yes.

The Orioles will make the postseason, but will be swept out of their first postseason series

@LukeW eyes emoji

The Orioles will make the postseason, but will be swept out of their first postseason series

O's lost Game 1 in the best of 3! Which means this WILL resolve tomorrow.

OK I believe I've resolved all the ones resolvable so far. The rest will depend on playoffs, award voting, and various odds and ends (like Ohtani open media sessions, I don't know how many he's at, though that one seems unlikely to resolve NO haha).

Jack Crighton of Clemson

At least one of the Giants' free agent additions from the 2023–24 offseason will have a higher fWAR than Shohei Ohtani or Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Snell beat Yamamoto, for one. Resolves YES.

Nope. Willson Contreras topped the board. Kirk was 14th.

The Orioles will make the postseason, but will be swept out of their first postseason series

This could resolve today, we'll see...

The lowest attendance for any OAK home game this year was 2895. Resolves NO.
source: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/OAK/2024-schedule-scores.shtml

@LukeW 1.3 for Lynn> 0.4 for deGrom

@LukeW it was close but imanaga held on 3.0 > 2.8

The regular-season schedule will end with the first-ever three-way tie for a playoff spot

bought Ṁ168 The regular-season s... YES

@LukeW resolves YES :O

@R2D2sm5g damn. NYM, ATL, and ARI all finished with 89-73. Sneks get the short end of the stick. Resolving yes.

The regular-season schedule will end with the first-ever three-way tie for a playoff spot

@LukeW well this is gonna be interesting

@LukeW Soto would need 9 HRs tomorrow, a feat only matched by Darryl Strawberry in that one Simpsons episode.

@LukeW if my calculations are correct, MLB is more than 200 SBs short of that mark. So seems unlikely.

@LukeW gonna be close! Braves need to win the last two games and Sox need to lose tomorrow for this to resolve as yes

@LukeW missed by one game lmao

@LukeW There are now three pitchers with more than 200 innings pitched -- Seth Lugo, Logan Webb, and Logan Gilbert.

@SEE Lugo, Logan, and Logan lol. Resolves NO.

bought Ṁ168 Answer #3d8229fcf0c9 YES

@LukeW resolves yes -- both Smith and Burns eclipsed 17 K/9 in fact 🤯

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=smith-000hag

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=burns-008cha

@R2D2sm5g yep, resolved YES

bought Ṁ100 Answer #2eba1d2f68ec YES

@LukeW at 35+ now, so this is a yes.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/patrick-bailey/27478/stats?position=C

@Mactuary Stats that can accrue negative value (such as Def) will not resolve until end of regular season.

@LukeW Can't happen; Brewers have clinched, Pirates currently in cellar.

@SEE yep, resolved

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