Which bold predictions will come true during the 2024 MLB season?
Basic
21
Ṁ10k
Nov 22
30%
The average age of MLB batters, weighted by plate appearances, will be lower than in any season since the 1970s (i.e. <27.91 yrs)
23%
Oneil Cruz will receive MVP votes, but still finish behind Elly De La Cruz
5%
A relief pitcher (50%+ appearances in relief) will win as many games as one of the Cy Young winners
1.6%
Sixto Sánchez will become the first player to earn Rookie of the Year votes in non-consecutive seasons
1.1%
George Kirby will win the AL Cy Young Award
1%
Two Texas Rangers will finish in the Top 5 in AL MVP voting
Resolved
YES
Shohei Ohtani will steal more bases than the total of the number of games he's suspended (if any) + the number of open media sessions he attends during the season
Resolved
YES
The four "Jacksons" (Holliday, Jobe, Chourio, Merrill) will produce more fWAR than the four "jacked sons" (Yandy Díaz, Tyler O'Neill, Adolis García, Michael Lorenzen)
Resolved
YES
The regular-season schedule will end with the first-ever three-way tie for a playoff spot
Resolved
YES
The top pick in the 2024 amateur draft will not be Dub Gleed, Michael Massey, Ethan Petry, or Marek Houston
Resolved
YES
The Orioles will make the postseason, but will be swept out of their first postseason series
Resolved
YES
At least one of the Giants' free agent additions from the 2023–24 offseason will have a higher fWAR than Shohei Ohtani or Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Resolved
YES
The second semifinal of the Home Run Derby will go to a tiebreaker
Resolved
YES
There will be at least one ejection in the Super Regional round of the NCAA tournament, but none in the College World Series
Resolved
YES
Patrick Bailey will be the first player in the 2020s to put up 30 runs of defensive value according to Fangraphs
Resolved
YES
Shota Imanaga will finish with a higher fWAR than Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Resolved
YES
Either Hagen Smith (Arkansas), Chase Burns (Wake Forest), or both will surpass the 15.3 K/9 achieved by Paul Skenes in 2023

On Episode 2143 of the Effectively Wild podcast, Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley, Ben Clemens, and Michael Baumann each made 10 "bold" predictions about baseball in 2024. Which ones will come true?

Source: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/effectively-wild-episode-2143-the-2024-preseason-predictions-game/

Most of, but not all, the predictions are about the MLB season itself. Some are about college baseball. But they will all be resolved by the end of November.

Resolution arbitration of all 40 questions will be determined by official MLB results, the Effectively Wild prediction contest, and the Associated Press.

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Resolved all the ones not involving award voting (with the exception of the age weighted by PAs one, I have no idea how to calculate that so I'll wait for EW to mention it on the podcast).

@LukeW with the tigers eliminated this can be resolved

The four "Jacksons" (Holliday, Jobe, Chourio, Merrill) will produce more fWAR than the four "jacked sons" (Yandy Díaz, Tyler O'Neill, Adolis García, Michael Lorenzen)

@LukeW Holliday: 0.0, Jobe: 0.0, Churio 3.9, Merrill 5.3 -- approx. 9.2

Diaz: 1.9, O'Neill 2.5, Garcia -0.2, Lorenzen 0.7 -- approx 4.9

The four "Jacksons" (Holliday, Jobe, Chourio, Merrill) will produce more fWAR than the four "jacked sons" (Yandy Díaz, Tyler O'Neill, Adolis García, Michael Lorenzen)

oops

bought Ṁ172 Answer #b5d380160f04 NO

@LukeW resolves NO

The four "Jacksons" (Holliday, Jobe, Chourio, Merrill) will produce more fWAR than the four "jacked sons" (Yandy Díaz, Tyler O'Neill, Adolis García, Michael Lorenzen)

@LukeW resolves YES

@R2D2sm5g I haven't added up the WARs on this yet. If you can provided the evidence, please do. Otherwise I'll get to it soon.

@LukeW yeah no worries take your time

i just did a quick estimation -- don't think it's particularly close.

The Orioles will make the postseason, but will be swept out of their first postseason series

Just as the prophecy foretold. Resolves yes.

The Orioles will make the postseason, but will be swept out of their first postseason series

@LukeW eyes emoji

The Orioles will make the postseason, but will be swept out of their first postseason series

O's lost Game 1 in the best of 3! Which means this WILL resolve tomorrow.

OK I believe I've resolved all the ones resolvable so far. The rest will depend on playoffs, award voting, and various odds and ends (like Ohtani open media sessions, I don't know how many he's at, though that one seems unlikely to resolve NO haha).

There will be at least one ejection in the Super Regional round of the NCAA tournament, but none in the College World Series

Jack Crighton of Clemson

At least one of the Giants' free agent additions from the 2023–24 offseason will have a higher fWAR than Shohei Ohtani or Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Snell beat Yamamoto, for one. Resolves YES.

Nope. Willson Contreras topped the board. Kirk was 14th.

The Orioles will make the postseason, but will be swept out of their first postseason series

This could resolve today, we'll see...

The lowest attendance for any OAK home game this year was 2895. Resolves NO.
source: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/OAK/2024-schedule-scores.shtml

@LukeW 1.3 for Lynn> 0.4 for deGrom

Shota Imanaga will finish with a higher fWAR than Yoshinobu Yamamoto

@LukeW it was close but imanaga held on 3.0 > 2.8

The regular-season schedule will end with the first-ever three-way tie for a playoff spot
bought Ṁ168 The regular-season s... YES

@LukeW resolves YES :O

@R2D2sm5g damn. NYM, ATL, and ARI all finished with 89-73. Sneks get the short end of the stick. Resolving yes.

The regular-season schedule will end with the first-ever three-way tie for a playoff spot

@LukeW well this is gonna be interesting

@LukeW Soto would need 9 HRs tomorrow, a feat only matched by Darryl Strawberry in that one Simpsons episode.

@LukeW if my calculations are correct, MLB is more than 200 SBs short of that mark. So seems unlikely.

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