Will a Republican in name only win the GOP primaries for the 2024 election?
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5
Ṁ446
resolved Aug 14
Resolved
NO

If a man or woman like John McCain wins the GOP primaries, this market resolves to YES. I will use a set of evidences, including whether people in the GOP call the candidate a RINO to choose. Acknowledgement of climate change, a discourse not-based in bigotry would count.

Over time, we can discuss whether certain people are RINOs. Obviously neither Ron nor Donald are RINOs.

I won't bet.

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bought Ṁ80 NO

@MP this resolves no

literally several traders have literally hundreds of mana tied up waiting for this to resolve smdh

Donald trump, an obvious non-rino, called nikki haley a rino. She won the vermont and DC primaries. Does this resolve YES? @MP

this market seems a bit too politically charged? obviously i dont know u personally so i cant rly say but might be a good idea to edit the description so its less harsh on republicans

@VictorLi fyi im not a republican myself but i just wish for manifold to be more abt neutral forecasting

@VictorLi how would you suggest?

@MP maybe leave out the "a discourse not-based in bigotry would count" bit? it sounds like ur just throwing shade at the republicans. its probably a good idea to just resolve the market based on a solid metric like how often they vote with the republican consensus or whether or not they've been called RINOs by other republicans.