The mathematics of portfolio management. Kelly betting, correlated risk, opportunity costs, etc.

Relationship between betting to win money and making good predictions. Alpha and Beta in markets. Other trading concepts and how they apply to prediction markets.

1. A talk on performative prediction, where the act of making a prediction affects the outcome

2. A talk on the Conditioning Predictive Models agenda in AI Safety

Overview/deep dive/discussion of Manifold’s technical architecture and design (backend, frontend, API, etc could each have their own session if there’s enough interest… maybe also go into future roadmap/ideas?)

A panel on the regulation of political betting markets in the United States and abroad, which will discuss how and why these markets are regulated, and what can be done to reform regulations to serve the public interest.

A game of mafia in which there's a a market for each player on whether they're in the mafia, and where the daily execution is decided not by voting but by the highest-priced player at the end of the day

I've run something similar before: https://arjunpanickssery.substack.com/p/play-my-futarchyprediction-market

A Keynesian beauty contest Keynesian beauty contest. Participants try to predict which participant a majority of participants thinks looks most like John Maynard Keynes.

How to stop gambling

Impact certificates as a funding mechanism.

Karaoke with win/place/show free response market for best performance

A chess tournament / olympic style board games with Mana as a reward for the winner

Game show format: only a few contestants compete. (The audience can participate via betting on who will win etc.) Promotional twist! Contestants can phone a friend for help, but only if that friend has never heard of Manifold.

Live telethon to crowdfund for Manifund 😄

A talk on Logical Induction and/or Bounded Rational Inductive Agents (Oesterheld, Demski, and Conitzer 2023).

How about something that involves an actual user of the app??

I would really love some live betting on second-to-second but otherwise silly events; think like marble olympics https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OUuYf6e8LEs.

Marble Rally S6: Intense Championship FIGHT!

Marble Rally S6 ALL RACES | Jelle's Marble RunsAll the races in full length with commentary from Greg Woods of the #marblerally Season 6! 16 colored marbles ...

Could the user-base help MF compound part of the available funding through low-cost, high volatility investment bets? How?

Invite experts and let them make predictions in their field. Compare them to a random person making predictions about the same questions. Repeat with different fields and compare. Which experts can predict their field the best?

...Cosplay Contest with mana prize.

How to communicate technical stuff with nontechnical people, including live demos and practice

Caption contest powerpoint presentation: Project a screenshot of a yes/no market and censor the question, description, and comments. Have people invent a funny story of what that market was about and what events caused significant changes in the market.