Manifest 2023 is Manifold's inaugural forecasting conference — more info & buy tickets here!
We'll award M500 to anyone who suggests a speaker who we end up putting on manifestconference.net/speakers, excluding those who're already on there — that means (a) we have to approve of them, and (b) they have to personally attend Manifest. If the bounty runs out, we'll add more.
Some bounty criteria details:
if you suggest a speaker who we've already reached out to or planned on reaching out to, you won't get a bounty (sorry!)
for most speakers, we'd prefer to reach out to them directly. but it's your bounty on the line! do what you think is best :)
our goal is to get the community's input on speakers. so, the above bounty criteria are subject to change in response to Goodharting!
1,000
3.00Josh Morrison, president and co-founder of 1Day Sooner (and previously founder of Waitlist Zero and Rikers Debate Project). (Full disclosure: I work at 1Day Sooner so lots of inside view and/or bias here.) We're working on a couple of forecasting-inspired projects, and Josh has been thinking extensively about using forecasting in market shaping and public health policy.
I'm sure you've thought of Nate Silver, but I'll put in a good word for the rest of the 538 staff (both current and alumni) as excellent data journalists who have spent a lot of time looking at political forecasts and occasionally comparing them to betting markets. They're also great at putting on a show, after all the live 538 podcasts they've done over the years. Some of the most notable folks:
Nathaniel Rakich: https://twitter.com/baseballot
Galen Druke: https://twitter.com/galendruke
Clare Malone: https://twitter.com/ClareMalone
Geoffery Skelley: https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs
Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux: https://twitter.com/ameliatd
If it's not too late, I would highly suggest David Brin! His novel Existance was my first introduction to the concept of prediction markets, and I think he would make a welcome addition to the conference.
his links:
https://www.davidbrin.com/
