If a Democrat wins the 2024 Presidential Election, how will abortion be restricted federally before 2027?
12
Ṁ13672027
1D
1W
1M
ALL
1%
Banned in all cases
3%
Banned with exceptions
3%
Banned after 6 weeks (perhaps with exceptions)
5%
Banned after 15 weeks (perhaps with exceptions)
8%
Banned after 20 weeks (perhaps with exceptions)
9%
Banned after 24 weeks (perhaps with exceptions)
93%
None of the above
If a Democrat does not win, this question will be resolved N/A
Multiple answers can resolve yes as follows:
"Banned in all cases" and "Banned with exceptions" are mutually exclusive. If either of them resolve YES, then "Banned after X weeks" will resolve YES.
If "Banned after X weeks" resolves YES, "Banned after Y weeks" (Y > X) resolves YES
If "None of the above" resolves YES, nothing else resolves YES (obviously)
"exceptions" includes life of the mother, rape/incest, and other exceptions that affect (cumulatively) <10% of pregnancies. If abortions for teenage pregnancies were be completely banned, and no other abortions were restricted, this market would resolve "None of the above."
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