Resolves after the AP calls the race.
Upgraded to premium!
Right now Nate Silver has Michigan at 59% Harris, 538 has it at 63% Harris, and The Economist has it at 64% Harris.
Harris +11 in Michigan according to the latest Morning Consult poll, not bad.
(My median guess for the margin in Michigan is much less than D+11, but it does update me a little!)
idk if it's actually better to downweight outliers? Feels arbitrary. imo best practice is just throw it in the average like everything else. And from looking into it, the sample isn't weirdly dem biased or anything, there's just a bunch of Trump 2020 -> Harris 2024 voters which haven't existed in other polls
Michigan has traditionally been the dems' strongest state among the rust belt swings. Obama won it by 17(!) points in 2008 and 10 points in 2012, so if Kamala's coalition looks a little bit like a hybrid of Obama's and Biden's, 11 points could definitely be feasible! 11 points in Michigan in a universe that's very easy to imagine could line up with like, +8 in Wisconsin, +4 in Pennsylvania and +4 nationally, or something? Plenty of polls showing Harris up 2/3 points nationally already!
Admittedly seems like an outlier at this point, but not a super bizarre one by any means.
@KwameOsei Obama won Michigan by 17 points in 2008 while winning the national popular vote by 7.
Don’t over-index on the last two elections. Coalitions can change. Wait for polling to settle down before concluding anything about the electoral college gap.
This is true, but Obama was disproportionately successful in the Midwest (he actually had an EC advantage relative to popular vote). I think Harris continues the trend away from that of Democratic overperformance in coasts and UMC suburbs while losing wwc (Nate silver said she has a bigger EC disadvantage than Biden)
Biden up 5... absolutely inexplicably, but given I live in Michigan and fully intend on voting for him I guess I can't complain https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-bad-news-swing-states-poll-despite-joe-biden-debate-performance-1921852
Trump currently up in Michigan
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/