This market explores the potential of a Chinese-manufactured airliner disrupting the longstanding duopoly held by Airbus and Boeing in the commercial aviation market by the year 2030. Airbus and Boeing have dominated the industry for decades, setting the standards for passenger and freight aircraft. However, with the rise of China's aerospace ambitions and investments in technology and infrastructure, there's growing speculation about a new competitor entering the global market. This market will track the development, certification, and commercial success of Chinese-made airliners, considering factors like technological advancements, international regulations, safety records, market reception, and geopolitical influences. Resolve this market affirmative if, by 2030, a Chinese company successfully introduces a commercial airliner that significantly challenges the market share or technological leadership of Airbus or Boeing.
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@Kire_ this market is effectively about the C919:
@JoshuaWilkes seems unlikely this narrow-body jet could compete with the wide-bodies that carry nearly half of all passenger-kilometers, don't you think?
@BrunoParga but I don't understand your wider point. You think narrow-bodies can't compete with wide-bodies?
@JoshuaWilkes in specific routes at specific times, yes. In the global aviation market, I don't think so. As in, I don't think we would see a situation where wide-bodies lose a significant share of the market.
@BrunoParga for this market, although the resolution criteria are not well defined, if a Chinese airliner challenged the market share of a particular sector I have been assuming that would be enough for a YES.
But anyway narrow bodies are roughly three quarters of airliner orders (ignoring turbo props, haven't done that maths), so acquiring a significant share of the narrow body market would be acquiring a significant share of the overall market.