Background

• 2024 was confirmed as the warmest year on record, with global temperatures reaching approximately 1.55°C to 1.6°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900 average)

• The transition from El Niño to a weak La Niña event in 2025 is expected to result in slightly cooler temperatures compared to 2024

• Berkeley Earth projects 2025 to likely be the third warmest year on record

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve based on the official Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) report on the global temperature anomaly for January 2025 compared to pre-industrial levels (1850-1900). The specific temperature range that matches the reported anomaly will resolve as YES, while all other ranges will resolve as NO.

Considerations

• Monthly temperature anomalies can be more volatile than annual averages

• January temperatures in particular can be influenced by winter weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere

• While 2025 is expected to be cooler than 2024 overall, individual months may still show significant warming

• The ranges provided cover all possible outcomes, so the market will not resolve as N/A unless Copernicus fails to publish the January 2025 report