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Will the global near-surface temperature exceed 1.5℃ above the preindustrial average for at least one year in 2023-2027?
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74%
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This is part of a series of questions on the predictions from the last Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update from the World Meteorological Organization.
The chance of global near-surface temperature exceeding 1.5°C above preindustrial levels for at least one year between 2023 and 2027 is more likely than not (66%). It is unlikely (32%) that the five-year mean will exceed this threshold.
I will base the resolution on data from the WMO, if available. Otherwise, I will base it on the most reliable measurements I can find.
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2023 was 1.45° above the preindustrial average:
https://wmo.int/publication-series/state-of-global-climate-2023
So if 2024 is hotter, it will likely pass the threshold.
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