This is part of a series of questions on the predictions from the last Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update from the World Meteorological Organization.
The annual mean global near-surface temperature for each year between 2023 and 2027 is predicted to be between 1.1°C and 1.8°C higher than the average over the years 1850-1900.
Will this hold true for every year between 2023 and 2027 (inclusive)? I will base the resolution on data from the WMO, if available. Otherwise, I will base it on the most reliable measurements I can find.
Not sure what data they're using exactly (it could matter a lot, see the end of this piece), but this says 2022 was 1.15, so 1.1 seems quite low.
So let's say you do not accept scientific consensus on climate change in general and you're betting on this market. Given that the market resolver is using the WMO as a source, if you are skeptical of such a body, doesn't it make sense that they would actually, "prove themselves correct," with future data? I can't see how this market would only go upwards to find a high plausible point well above 50% since the measuring body is the WMO. https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/global-temperatures-set-reach-new-records-next-five-years
@PatrickDelaney it would not contradict their own narrative and just fit in their world view. But it wouldn't prove themselves correct.
If I do a raindance to make it rain tomorrow, just as the weather forecast says it will anyway:
Will the fact that it really rains the next day prove me right, that my raindance induced the rain?
To prove one side right I'd say it's necessary that narratives/theories/predictions contradict each other.