P(Aliens) - Is there human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?

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P(Aliens) - Are the 2020-2022 Pentagon UFO Navy videos evidence of human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?

20% chance

As of our 2023 light cone, is there extraterrestrial life in the galaxy?

55% chance

Will the top AI system in 2100 think it is >1% likely there exists a universe with ℶ₃₇ sentient beings?

15% chance

Does a civilization with Kardashev rating equal or greater than 1 exist in the Milky Way?

25% chance

If we encounter intelligent aliens, will they turn out to lack self-awareness? [read description]

38% chance

Will we get AGI before we discover alien life?

77% chance

Will we discover aliens before AGI?

12% chance

Conditional on us making contact with intelligent extraterrestrial life, how many light years away is it from Earth?

190

Whether aliens really exist

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Are we saying there’s a 61% chance of aliens being headlines before 2050, in 30 years? The market is either way overvalued or the resolution criteria/date needs to change

How does this resolve if we find out that the simulation ends outside the solar system and everything outside of it is just a fancy skybox?

bought Ṁ50 NO

I think this market is going to be systematically biased upwards because:

If there are aliens: this market will resolve to yes at finite time

If there are no aliens: this market is unlikely to resolve to No at finite time

So there will be less no voters due to reward discounting

bought Ṁ100 YES

(sorry accidentally replied to wrong comment and don't see a way to delete)

Is there human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?

There's this species on the third planet around Sol that seems to have human-level intelligence..

predictedYES

Why 2050 close date? @Socrates

https://sideways-view.com/2018/03/23/on-seti/

Does this resolve? Is so how?

Excluding us, I assume.

bought Ṁ50 YES

And any non-human intelligent life that may arise on Earth

@GooGhoul Or Mars right? Like if we build new life in a lab on Mars that would not resolve YES I would think. It has to be not downstream of humans. So not any AI-generated life either, if the AI was generated by an AI that was generated by an AI... that was created by humans.