Biden ranked below Carter in next C-SPAN Presidential Historians Survey
29
1kṀ5230
Jun 30
81%
chance

Will Joe Biden be ranked below Jimmy Carter in the next C-SPAN Presidential Historians Survey? Market resolves based on the next C-SPAN Presidential Historians Survey results, expected in early 2025.

https://www.c-span.org/presidentsurvey2021/?page=overall

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83% is too high tbf. Do people just not grasp how bad Carter was?

@LiamRutherford His ranking in past surveys isn't that bad.

@LiamRutherford buy some NO?

@MartinRandall I’ve bought a lot already. I think I’m the top buyer actually.

@LiamRutherford nice. I didn't see that @Chad was propping up the value by themself.

@MartinRandall Apparently @Chad deleted his account. @JamesGrugett, any chance I could take over that handle? Always wanted one with just my first name.

@mods @JamesGrugett I’d be willing to forgo withdrawing my 44.46 sweepcash if I can switch to the defunct @Chad handle.

(I won’t withdraw it either way)

@ChadCotty Mods can't help you with that and James has left Manifold to work on Manicode. Perhaps @SirSalty can help?

How sure are we they are doing the survey? It's only been done, what, 4 times?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen It resolves based on the next one, whenever that is.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen the site says it is happening this year.

@MartinRandall @JussiVilleHeiskanen The last survey was released June 30, 2021, so it will probably be a few more months before we get the next one.

When does it drop?

@LiamRutherford my understanding around president's day, and that was yesterday

sold Ṁ56 NO

Biden in freefall. Sold my NO at a loss. The more we learn the worse it seems to get.

@MartinRandall holding. I don’t think he can sink to GWB numbers.

bought Ṁ150 NO

He had several major legislative accomplishments, which I feel like historians favor.

@PaperBoy it's a tug of war between that and failing to step aside + visceral reaction to pardoning your own son

@IsaacLiu agreed. What makes it a bit harder as well is that Carter is somewhat middle of the pack

sold Ṁ30 NO

@IsaacLiu not just any old pardon, it's a blanket ten year pardon.

@PaperBoy His legislative accomplishments had a high price tag but seem pretty weak in terms of long-term effects.

@MartinRandall yeah I sold my position after realizing that Carter isn’t even that low

bought Ṁ250 NO

From reporting of a 2022 survey:

... historians like Biden for his integrity ... However, he scores lower in his ... ability to communicate.

The assessment of his ability to communicate has held up well.

bought Ṁ29 YES

@MartinRandall integrity isn't really holding up well

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