When is the next US government shutdown?
@MartinRandall will you be resolving the 2023 option to NO now, or is this the kind of market that all options would only resolve together? Thanks!
@AnonUser This is not a multi binary unlinked market so you cant. It is a multiple choice linked dependent market.
@DanielTilkin Yes, that's what people think. 1% chance of 2025 or later. I guess people expect that a 2023 deal is likely to only go as far as 2024 and then there will be election year pressure on politicians to not compromise. American voters routinely tell pollsters that they only like compromise when the other side does it. One of the ways in which the country gets the government it votes for.
@DanielTilkin Maybe this is abundantly obvious to everyone reading this, but this market doesn’t imply a X% chance of year Y. It implies an X% chance that [no shutdown happens any year preceding year Y and then a shutdown on year Y.]