Will any former or current US president openly support sedition before January 1st, 2030?
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15
Ṁ1096
2030
49%
chance

Sedition is defined as conduct or speech inciting people to rebel against the authority of a state or monarch. Open support for sedition by a former or current US president would be a highly controversial and unprecedented event. This question seeks to determine whether any former or current US president will openly support sedition before 2030, based on a detailed set of criteria that help establish if a speech or statement qualifies as open support for sedition.

Before January 1st, 2030, will any former or current US president openly support sedition, as determined by the detailed criteria specified below?

Resolution Criteria:

This question will resolve positively if, before January 1st, 2030, credible news sources, video or audio recordings, or official transcripts confirm that a former or current US president has made a speech or statement that meets all of the following criteria:

  1. Subject: The speech or statement must explicitly reference rebellion, insurrection, or organized resistance against the United States government, its institutions, or its elected or appointed officials, as defined below.

  2. Support: The speech or statement must clearly express approval, endorsement, or encouragement of the rebellious, insurrectionary, or resistant actions. The supporting language must include at least one of the following phrases or phrases of equivalent weight and meaning:
    a. "I fully support the violent rebellion against the government."
    b. "I endorse the insurrection aimed at overthrowing the United States government."
    c. "I encourage the organized and unlawful resistance against our government and its institutions."
    The support must not be conditional or hypothetical; it must be unequivocal and affirmative.

  3. Intent: The speech or statement must demonstrate a clear intent to promote or facilitate sedition. This can be determined by the use of language that incites or calls for action, organization, or mobilization against the United States government, its institutions, or its elected or appointed officials. The language must include at least one of the following phrases or phrases of equivalent weight and meaning:
    a. "Rise up and violently overthrow the government."
    b. "Take direct, unlawful action against the United States government and its officials."
    c. "Join forces to resist the oppressive regime of our government through unlawful means."

  4. Public and Verifiable: The speech or statement must be made publicly and verifiably, either in person, through written communication, or via audio or video recording. Statements made in private conversations, even if later leaked or reported, will not be considered for this question.

  5. Direct Attribution: The speech or statement must be directly attributable to the former or current US president, with no reasonable doubt about the source or authenticity of the statement.

  6. Exclusion: Passive resistance, such as encouraging people not to pay taxes, will not be considered as sedition for the purpose of this question. Examples of passive acts that do not result in direct physical injury to others include, but are not limited to: encouraging others to avoid paying taxes, urging individuals to disregard jury duty summons, and promoting non-compliance with selective service registration requirements. These acts, while potentially disruptive to government functions, do not involve violent or insurrectionary actions and are therefore excluded from the definition of sedition in this question.

If credible news sources, video or audio recordings, or official transcripts confirm that a former or current US president has made a speech or statement meeting all of the above criteria before January 1st, 2030, the question will resolve positively. If no such speech or statement is made by the deadline, the question will resolve negatively.

Note: This question is not concerned with potential legal consequences, impeachment, or removal from office as a result of the speech or statement. It focuses solely on whether a former or current US president will openly support sedition as defined by the detailed criteria.


For the purpose of this question, rebellion is defined as a violent uprising or armed resistance against the government or its institutions; insurrection is defined as a violent, coordinated effort to overthrow the government or disrupt its lawful activities; and organized resistance is defined as a structured and premeditated effort to undermine or oppose the government using unlawful means. Peaceful protests, demonstrations, or expressions of dissent that operate within the boundaries of the law are not considered rebellion, insurrection, or organized resistance for the purpose of this question.

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Take direct, unlawful action against the United States government and its officials.

No one would ever say "Take unlawful action"; they would claim to be on the right side of the law.

Capitalism will collapse in 2026

Sedition overlaps with a Russell conjugation of civil disobedience. Supporting MLK openly in the 50s would technically have met criteria 1/2c/3c/4/5.

@JonathanRay Indeed I think MLK openly advocated sedition in a neutral, non-violent sense.

predicts YES

@JonathanRay republicans said they will secede if elections are federalized, 2024 is the last election america will ever have if not 202p

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