Yes Resolution: If the mobilized forces of at least 250,000 recruits demonstrate readiness, high morale, sufficient supplies, strong political stability, significant international support, and civilian resilience.
No Resolution: If Ukrainian state fails to mobilize forces of at least 250,000 recruits or the forces lack readiness, face logistical challenges, experience low morale, political instability, limited international support, and civilian populations struggle to maintain essential services.
To resolve whether the mass forced mobilization of at least 250,000 recruits in Ukraine will succeed in 2024, official military reports, logistical assessments, intelligence updates, public opinion surveys, international aid announcements, media coverage, government statements, and reports from independent observers will be considered.
Neither confirming success nor indicating failure, the resolution will remain ambiguous (N/A) due to inconclusive reports from military and intelligence sources, mixed public opinion, limited international assistance, unpredictable civilian resilience, and indecisive government statements.
1,000
3.00Bet on Russo-Ukraine war here:
Will the Ukraine war enter a state of "frozen conflict" by:
EOY 2025?
EOY 2024?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-the-ukraine-war-enter-a-state?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
Will negotiations between Ukraine and Russia start this year and why? (your answers)
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-negotiations-between-ukraine-a
If any side secures a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, what will be the causes?
pro-Russian ceasefire?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/if-russia-secures-a-substantively-p?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
pro-Ukraine ceasefire?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/how-could-ukraine-win-a-war-against?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
Will Transnistria be annexed by Russia until EOY 2025?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-transnistria-be-annexed-by-rus?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
Will one or more Ukrainian private military companies participate in battalion-sized (500+ soldier) combat operations?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-one-or-more-ukrainian-private?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
Will Ukraine destroy at least 5 strategic bombers this year, preventing their further use for shelling Ukraine?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-ukraine-destroy-at-least-5-str?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
Will Ukrainian frontline collapse until EOY 2024?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-ukrainian-frontline-collapse-u?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
Will Ukrainian authorities lift the travel ban for male citizens aged 18-60 by January 1, 2026?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-ukrainian-authorities-lift-the?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
Will commercial flights resume from any Ukrainian airport by January 1, 2026?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-commercial-flights-resume-from?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
Will Kharkiv or Zaporizhia or Kherson fall before EOY 2024?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-kharkiv-or-zaporizhia-or-khers
Will Russia implement a major nationwide forced military mobilization for the Ukraine war before EOY 2024?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-russia-implement-a-major-natio
Will there be mass protests in Ukraine analogous to the Maidan protests by December 31, 2024?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-there-be-mass-protests-in-ukra
When will martial law be lifted in at least 3/4 of Ukraine?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/when-will-martial-law-be-lifted-in
When will conscripted Ukrainians be able to demobilize?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/when-will-conscripted-ukrainians-be