Trump has been re-truthing his Polymarket odds because they favor him so heavily compared to other sources.

Is this the long-awaited path to prediction market mainstreaming?

Resolves YES if:

• political betting is legalized or de-facto deregulated during a Trump presidency.

Resolves NO if:

• The above happens during a non-Trump presidency.

• Trump completes a second term without any indication of intending to pursue a third.

• Trump dies.

FINE PRINT:

• My threshold for "de-facto deregulation" is that it should be possible for Americans to place relatively unrestricted bets on e.g. Polymarket, and such a platform should be operating "in the open," not just hiding in a temporary legal grey area between permitted and banned. A good indicator would be if Polymarket feels comfortable buying subway ads.