https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Georgia_State_Senate_election#Results_summary
Election is notable because both candidates are somewhat unusual: Still was one of Trump's fake electors and has been indicted for allegedly violating Georgia's RICO Act, impersonating a public officer, forgery, false statements and writings, and other charges, while Ramaswami would be the first computer scientist in the State Legislature and Gen Z member of the State Senate.
[Added note] This has one winner, but I missed the one/any number choice when creating the question, so the %s won't automatically adjust to sum to 100%. Embarrassing, but that means free mana for traders who take advantage when the choices don't sum to 100%.
1,000
1.00Ballotpedia entries for the district and candidates are fairly informative:
https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia_State_Senate_District_48
Analysis from a Georgia politics blogger https://nilesfrancis.substack.com/p/young-tech-engineer-takes-on-indicted
Apparently Still or supporters are sending attack mailers against Ramaswami https://x.com/ashwinforga/status/1837994737707495691
https://apnews.com/article/still-ramaswami-fake-elector-election-georgia-senate-e0581cbd876638ffcda06e7b3a052dae new coverage from a few days ago. Read the whole thing, good coverage of both candidates, but here's the bit probably most pertinent to odds:
The district is drawn to be Republican, stretching across northern Atlanta suburbs in Fulton, Forsyth and Gwinnett counties. But two years ago, Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock won the district over Trump-aligned Herschel Walker even as voters backed Republican Gov. Brian Kemp and Still beat his Democratic opponent by 14 points. Ramaswami hopes to mimic Warnock’s win by swaying voters unsettled by Trump and believes he can connect to the district’s Indian population. The district’s population is more than 30% Asian, the highest share in Georgia.
Ramaswami’s campaign has raised more than $460,000, high for a legislative race, and has tapped many out-of-state donors. Still has raised just over $145,000, but Republican groups could potentially pump in more cash if they believe Still is threatened.
Also worth noting that Ramaswami released hist first ad today https://x.com/ashwinforga/status/1831309818436419683
Still re-started a X account https://x.com/SenShawnStill which has mostly content celebrating local events, not much political or election related. Curiously Still's X profile link is https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyuqDQNeiGo a video statement from Still on Bangladesh; perhaps this is a way of the incumbent reaching out to South Asian voters in the district?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/05/ashwin-ramaswami-running-georgia-state-senate-shawn-still seems to me the best reporting on this race yet with quotes from both candidates. Whole thing is worth reading for hints, though I guess this bit covers the base rate:
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee believes Still’s seat has a 7-point Republican lean now, discounting the effects of the indictment on the race. Two senate seats held by Democrats are within striking distance of a Republican. All of Georgia’s remaining senate districts require a wipeout wave election to be seriously competitive.
I'm not sure what would qualify as a wipeout wave election in Georgia, or whether legislative races would be strongly correlated with (pulled along by?) the POTUS vote there. One question about margin in the latter:
Fundraising report Ramaswami raised $461,987.57 ($12,626.00 from self) spent $164,806.15 cash balance $297,181.42 debt balance $0.00 last filing 07/01/2024 https://efile.ethics.ga.gov/#/exploreDetails/UZ-Eud6A3Z6yTXVSVZOegJP4048PFnxLXRUfdOLcQk01/37/20701/371/2024
Still raised $145,039.77 ($100,000.00 from self) spent $35,346.32 cash balance $115,232.99 debt balance $240,000.00 last filing 07/08/2024 https://efile.ethics.ga.gov/#/exploreDetails/__bm5R1Hw8w2lmFixp8BgZP4048PFnxLXRUfdOLcQk01/37/20701/371/2024
ps entirely possible I misunderstand the reporting. Looked it up after reading https://www.siliconindia.com/news/usindians/gen-z-indianamerican-candidate-gains-momentum-in-georgia-senate-race-nid-230520-cid-49.html dated July 3 which says
According to the latest finance report, Ramaswami has outraised his opponent, garnering more than $280,000 in his grassroots campaign.
Possibly that reporting is based on an earlier filing.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/05/27/gen-z-candidate-georgia-trump-fake-elector-ashwin-ramaswami/73785678007/ includes some assessment of the campaigns. Read for yourself, but my takeaway: Ramaswami has outraised Still, but it's still an uphill battle vs an incumbent in a R district. Last line of article:
> “Bottom line: Ramaswami has a chance in November,” Bullock said.
(Bullock is a polisci prof at U GA.)
Neither candidate faces competition in the Georgia primary today, but here are the result pages anyway https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/121186/web.317647/#/detail/44820 (D)
and https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/121186/web.317647/#/detail/44810 (R)
Looks like the relevant counties are reporting at 100%. Still got 8386 votes in the unopposed R primary, Ramaswami 5412 votes in the unopposed D primary. I don't know how indicative unopposed primary turnout is of general election results or whether there are factors that might be increased or decreased primary turnout (eg contested or boring primaries for other offices) more for one party than the other relative to the general election.