If we survive artificial general intelligence, will Isaac King's market resolve to "none of the above" or similar? | Manifold

If we survive artificial general intelligence, will Isaac King's market resolve to "none of the above" or similar?

Basic

9

Ṁ438

2200

4%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This market resolves N/A if Isaac is unable to resolve his market by 2200, or if the market is resolved fraudulently or before the advent of AGI.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

predicts NO

Note that "none of the above" isn't an option on the market, and the description states that I'll just pick the closest one, so I'm confused why anyone would bet YES here.

Also you should probably include a link to the market.

predicts NO

What if his designated survivor resolves the market as described on his profile?

predicts NO

@MartinRandall that works.

Related questions

Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?

+9% 1d53% chance

If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?

Will Eliezer's "If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?" market resolve N/A?

If AI wipes out humanity, will it resolve applicable markets correctly?

If AI wipes out humanity by 2030, will Manifold Markets be operational?

If we survive artificial general intelligence, will Isaac King's success market resolve to "none of the above"?

If we survive general artificial intelligence, what will be the reason?

If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?

Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?

Related questions

Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?

If we survive artificial general intelligence, will Isaac King's success market resolve to "none of the above"?

If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?

If we survive general artificial intelligence, what will be the reason?

Will Eliezer's "If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?" market resolve N/A?

If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?

If AI wipes out humanity, will it resolve applicable markets correctly?

Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

If AI wipes out humanity by 2030, will Manifold Markets be operational?

If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules