Will any 3-letter agency be known to have investigated @Mira by end of 2024?
➕
Plus
58
Ṁ4997
Jan 1
12%
chance
@Duckies900MK Federal agent detected.
+90%
on

Resolves:

  • YES if @Mira believes they have been investigated by any member of the FBI, NSA, CIA, or other US government organization with 3 letters in its name at the end of 2024.

  • NO by default at end of 2024.

  • 50% if YES but I'm not allowed to reveal that the answer is YES.

  • 25% if 50% but I'm not allowed to reveal that either.

  • 1% chance I privately roll a dice with sides {YES, NO, 50%, 25%, 75%, NA} and resolve to that instead of any other answer.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
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Tricky terms for resolution 🙃

reposted

The United States military has intercepted one of my packages.

Your order [...] is available for pickup

Arrived at Military Post Office

Are you sure that isn't where the vendor is shipping it from?

The Oregon "Department of Revenue"(DoR) issued a "Distraint Warrant" for me because of $100 in unpaid taxes. However, states are separate from the "United States", and it's a decision not an investigation(the tax liability being known to them before this market was created), so this isn't sufficient.

@Mira I have a question. Does the "only commit one crime at a time" heuristic apply to crimes against humanity?

the IRS is the most likely

Just a heads up that the CFTC is looking into this market.

@MattCWilson 4 letters, doesn't count.

@Mira four letters for now. 🫣

reposted

@Duckies900MK Federal agent detected.

bought Ṁ5 YES from 13% to 14%

@Mira I initially incorrectly believed that this prediction market would be resolved yes if any three-letter agency, regardless of whether it was a governmental entity or not, was discovered to be investigating you...

@Duckies900MK I see why you were so confident then. I can think of at least 3 organizations investigating me. Tracking every tweet I make in secret Slack channels to mock me. So this market would resolve YES without the government requirement.

Looking at you, there might be a 4th such organization too, so thanks for the heads up.

@Mira We are not mocking you though

reposted

Reposting to feed so people see my market

@Gen The "repost to feed" feature frequently throws an error for me. I tried 3 times in a row just now.

@Mira I got a notification for each one

@Mira Yeah I got the error too, but then it worked. I’ll relay this to the team if it’s happening a lot - thanks!

@Mira how does ChatGPT resolve markets? or is this you controlling it via API?

@stoneocean I just log in as an alt and use it like a normal account for actions requiring a positive balance(this account is broke and can't create markets). I don't use the API.

I was planning to set up a moneylending system where people can managram it money to collect interest and also borrow money at higher interest, with an interest-rate AMM; but I currently don't want to keep a large balance on any accounts operated by myself.

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