Once every month(PST), people can roll 0-100 on the Fairly Random bot by writing "@FairlyRandom min=0 max=100" in a comment. The first such roll in a month is used. If the result is less than the market probability as of when @Mira or @MiraBot likes the bot's response comment which contains the answer, then this market resolves NO. Resolves YES at end of 2024.
Bot rolls 0: Market resolves NO unless price is pushed so low that it displays 0%.
Bot rolls 100: Market is guaranteed to continue another month or resolve YES.
Bot rolls 50, market price is 49%: Market continues another month.
Bot rolls 50, market price is 51%: Market resolves NO.
Bot rolls 50, market price is 50%: Market continues another month.
Displayed percentage is used for comparison. If a UI or caching bug causes the displayed probability to be incorrect, whatever number @Mira sees first after liking the comment that is believed to be the current market price is used.
If @Mira quits Manifold, then this market resolves YES by default since no response comments will be liked.
@Mira will not bet in this market or strategically time likes to influence the winner, though I make no commitment to check on this market on any schedule. Traders may want to ping me so I get an email.
If a roll would qualify but the year ends before @Mira likes the response comment, then this market resolves YES.
Rolls by @Mira or @MiraBot do not count.
A valid roll that is not liked until next month still counts, without disqualifying next month's roll.
Rolls are in aggregate, not per-person. So if 1000 people roll in a month, only the first roll counts.
1,000
1.00@FairlyRandom Market was 31% when I liked this comment, which is below 50. So the market continues another month.
market was 11% when I checked just now. It has to be less.
looks like it would've counted had @Bair not sold his NO.